The New 10% Rule? The #1 Predictor of Running Injury

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Single run mileage spikes may predict injury risk better than weekly mileage increases, per new study

and

Oct 03, 2025

The study:
How much running is too much? Identifying high-risk running sessions in a 5200-person cohort study

Brady’s newsletter breaking it down…

Run Long, Run Healthy: How Much Running is Too Much, Strategies for Curing ‘Overtraining’, and How Sleep Loss Impairs Heat Tolerance

Jul 10

00:00 Intro - The “How Much Running Is Too Much Study?”

01:15 Critiquing the classic 10% rule of running

02:21 The New Study, explained

03:30 Single Session Spike method

04:13 The Findings

04:51 The “single session paradigm”

05:07 Time to ditch the classic 10% rule?

05:58 Why the data doesn’t support the classic 10% rule

07:14 Our takeaways from the new study